For the three-months ended September 30, 2024 at the individual stock level, two holdings significantly detracted:
- A leading discount brokerage firm declined as lack of decisive improvement in cash sorting balances pushed out the anticipated rebound in net interest margin and, therefore, earnings. We reduced the position size of this stock as a result.
- The largest domestic manufacturer of memory chips declined in the quarter as commodity DRAM pricing weakened given sluggish recovery in PC and smart phone demand. However, much of our investment thesis lies in the enormous revenue opportunity created by high bandwidth memory. These more specialized chips are critical to accelerated compute/Generative AI usage. We also anticipate recovery in more traditional product lines.
Expanding upon Generative AI, it is important to note that its first public application, ChatGPT (200 million users to date), was launched less than two years ago, so it is early innings. Some investors have recently questioned the economic justification (Return on Investment) of the tens of billions of dollars spent to date on development and build-out. This healthy skepticism has turned associated stocks from “tell me” to “show me” stories. Keeping an open mind, we see plenty of evidence that Generative AI will continue to be a transformative innovation. A new portfolio thematic has emerged in a highly visible offshoot of the AI wave: the creation of incremental demand for electricity.
The International Energy Agency calculates that a ChatGPT query requires nearly 10 times as much electricity to process as a traditional Google search. Electricity consumption by data centers (the physical facilities which operate the digital world) is estimated to add roughly 1% to total annual growth of U.S. demand over roughly the next five years. Data centers coupled with electric vehicles and the post-COVID re-shoring of manufacturing are likely to increase total electricity consumption by 2 to 3% per annum in coming years. This growth would be in stark contrast to the stagnation of the last decades. Recent increases in wholesale pricing of electricity confirm this sea change is underway.
A key beneficiary of this theme is the operator of the largest carbon-free electric generation fleet in the U.S. The company offers earnings leverage to higher pricing given its unregulated status. Traditional utilities are typically regulated on a return on asset basis, limiting earnings upside. As a largely nuclear plant operator, operational downside protection is provided by the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022’s $15 megawatt hour nuclear production tax credit. The potential appeal of co-locating new data centers at the company’s carbon-free/baseload facilities offers additional opportunity down the road.
Other holdings represented in our Generative AI electricity thematic include:
- The leading domestic manufacturer of electric power generation equipment such as gas and wind turbines.
- A cutting-edge designer of liquid cooling systems for data center infrastructure.
Looking forward, we believe that financial assets will remain in a constructive environment based on:
Fed Easing Cycle The timing and magnitude of cuts in Fed Funds Rates will continue to be debated but the direction is lower.
Soft Economic Landing While the labor market is no longer tight (positive for wage inflation), new jobs continue to be created at a rate sufficient to avoid economic stalling.
Presidential Election The race is too close to call but often getting uncertainty resolved boosts stocks.
Fixed income investments within balanced portfolios are fully participating in the bond market’s rally due to a lengthening of duration enacted this summer.
Earnings season is next on our agenda so we will close by wishing an enjoyable fall season to all.
Best,
Craig B. Steinberg Matt Ward Bob Ruland
For the three-months ended September 30, 2024 at the individual stock level, two holdings significantly detracted:
Expanding upon Generative AI, it is important to note that its first public application, ChatGPT (200 million users to date), was launched less than two years ago, so it is early innings. Some investors have recently questioned the economic justification (Return on Investment) of the tens of billions of dollars spent to date on development and build-out. This healthy skepticism has turned associated stocks from “tell me” to “show me” stories. Keeping an open mind, we see plenty of evidence that Generative AI will continue to be a transformative innovation. A new portfolio thematic has emerged in a highly visible offshoot of the AI wave: the creation of incremental demand for electricity.
The International Energy Agency calculates that a ChatGPT query requires nearly 10 times as much electricity to process as a traditional Google search. Electricity consumption by data centers (the physical facilities which operate the digital world) is estimated to add roughly 1% to total annual growth of U.S. demand over roughly the next five years. Data centers coupled with electric vehicles and the post-COVID re-shoring of manufacturing are likely to increase total electricity consumption by 2 to 3% per annum in coming years. This growth would be in stark contrast to the stagnation of the last decades. Recent increases in wholesale pricing of electricity confirm this sea change is underway.
A key beneficiary of this theme is the operator of the largest carbon-free electric generation fleet in the U.S. The company offers earnings leverage to higher pricing given its unregulated status. Traditional utilities are typically regulated on a return on asset basis, limiting earnings upside. As a largely nuclear plant operator, operational downside protection is provided by the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022’s $15 megawatt hour nuclear production tax credit. The potential appeal of co-locating new data centers at the company’s carbon-free/baseload facilities offers additional opportunity down the road.
Other holdings represented in our Generative AI electricity thematic include:
Looking forward, we believe that financial assets will remain in a constructive environment based on:
Fed Easing Cycle The timing and magnitude of cuts in Fed Funds Rates will continue to be debated but the direction is lower.
Soft Economic Landing While the labor market is no longer tight (positive for wage inflation), new jobs continue to be created at a rate sufficient to avoid economic stalling.
Presidential Election The race is too close to call but often getting uncertainty resolved boosts stocks.
Fixed income investments within balanced portfolios are fully participating in the bond market’s rally due to a lengthening of duration enacted this summer.
Earnings season is next on our agenda so we will close by wishing an enjoyable fall season to all.
Best,
Craig B. Steinberg Matt Ward Bob Ruland
Although the statements of fact and data in this report have been obtained from, and are based upon, sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions included in this report constitute the Firm’s judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. This report is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. This information is intended for informational purposes only. Actual portfolios may vary. Investing in securities carries a risk of loss. There is no assurance that the investment objectives will be achieved or that the strategies employed will be achieved or that the strategies employed will be successful. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This presentation may contain forward looking statements or projections relating to future events or future performance. Such statements and projections are subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties and other factors, such as economic, political, and public health, that could cause actual events or results to differ materially from those anticipated in this presentation.
.